Market Insights

Recession Watch: Risks Remain Low

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With the current US business cycle extended from a historical perspective, some investors are concerned about heightened recession risks. Our SunTrust Leading Indicator Composite (SLIC), however, places near-term recession risks at only 20%, which is still relatively low by historical standards.

While there are risks we are monitoring, such as the flatter yield curve and tighter monetary policy, the weight of the evidence suggests the expansion has further to go and is set to challenge the longest in history.

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